2005, A Season Of Struggle?
Introduction -
With the Bucs finally reporting to training camp, and all 12 picks signed, sealed, and delivered, the team prepares for a season that many are saying will be a failure. Most prognosticators, if not all, have the Bucs finishing dead last in the NFC South. After the prior two seasons, it’s hard to blame them. But will this season yield any pleasant surprises?
Before I answer that question, let’s look back at last season and come to grips with what turned out to be a much worse season than I, and many others, had predicted. In no uncertain terms had I foreseen many of the events that transpired to make the Bucs finish 5-11. But now is the time to pull the stops out and look at what happened.
2004 – What Went Wrong? -
Going into the 2004 season the Bucs were clearing cap room and signing a plethora of free agents designed to be roll players, with the purpose of plugging the many holes that age and free agency had left the team with. The Bucs needed a running back to replace the departing Thomas. They needed to plug holes in the offensive line and do something about Walker’s high penalty rate. They needed receivers, as several up and comers, including Shepard, were lost for the season before training camp even begun.
The Bucs also needed tight ends, but none were available. The defense needed some help at safety and nickel corner. And Special Teams needed vast improvements. As a result the Bucs targeted all of these areas with FA’s since they lacked a high draft pick, though the Bucs had managed to target a couple of areas with picks as well. The Bucs picked up RB Charlie Garner in the hopes that he would spark the running game, and that new offensive linemen Derrick Deese, Matt Stinchcomb, and Todd Steussie would open the holes and imrpove the line play.
With McCardell holding out, and Joe Jurevicius injuring himself overcompensating for his prior injury, the Bucs were looking to rely on newcomers Joey Galloway and first round pick Michael Clayton. The Bucs picked up Mario Edwards to help out at corner, and Ian Gold to help out at the Sam LB along with LB Jeff Gooch. They also tried to bring in the infamous Darrell Russell to help plug the defensive line with a big run stuffer. The Bucs also brought in players like Keith Burns and several carefully selected draft picks to help out on Special Teams.
The result of all of this maneuvering? Garner goes out for the season in week 3. Steussie fails to make the switch and is replaced by Walker in week 5. Deese plays all season long with a nagging ankle injury. Galloway injures his hamstring against the ‘Skins and is out for several games. Joe Jurevicius barely sees the field most of the season. McCardell never plays for the Bucs again. Russell has a return to alcohol and never makes it to the Pre-season. Stinchcomb fails to live up to expectations. Then Mario Edwards is benched for several weeks.
To top it off, in the end, the Bucs placed 13 players on IR, topping the season before. And while Special Teams improved, overall, the kicking game, due to Martin Gramatica's loss of confidence, went south.
Then, as if all of this wasn’t enough, the 4 hurricanes hit Florida during a rather short period of time causing anguish amongst the team players who had family living in the state.
With all of the injuries, a tough schedule early, the fact that Brad’s arm just gave out and the Bucs had to play musical QB, plus the hurricanes, and the Keenan hold-out distraction, the Bucs simply lacked the players and the chemistry to get it done. If the Bucs had fielded JJ, McCardell, Galloway, and Clayton, all during the year, along with a healthy Garner and Pittman together, then you would have seen, from that alone, a big difference in the offense. In the end, just too many things went wrong, along with too many distractions, which caused the Bucs to nose dive right down to 5-11. Think back to how many games were lost because of just one, two, or three plays. With a couple more made field goals, a few less fumbles, and a TD or two more, the Bucs could have easily seen at least 8-8, if not more. But it was not to be. In the end, the Bucs played with too many distractions and not enough players with both talent and experience.
The Offseason -
With the offseason came many tirades, by both the press and fickle fans, against the coaching staff and front office. Some of the criticism was well deserved, while most was not. The team had taken one last stab at trying to patch a playoff team together, and it blew up in their face in the worst possible way. Everything went wrong.
With a new offseason, the Bucs front office finally decided to drop the patchwork and focus on doing whatever was needed to rebuild this team with younger, hungrier talent. With that, the Bucs turned to the draft, eschewing the lure of Free Agency.
Despite all of the disappointing FA’s the Bucs signed the prior year, the best thing GM Bruce Allen had done was find ways to stockpile draft picks. They traded Oben and McCardell to San Diego for multiple picks, and managed to collect some others, including compensatory picks. In all, the Bucs went into the draft with 12 picks, and came out with 13 players (the extra player was Luke McCown from Cleveland, gotten with a sixth round pick; the Bucs later picked up two later round picks for one early round pick). That included their first round pick, fifth overall, in Carnell Williams, the excellent running back out of Auburn.
The Bucs also picked up some much needed talent in other key areas including Ruud to be our future MLB, Alex Smith at TE, Buenning and Colmer for the offensive line, along with 3 receivers. The Bucs drafted quite well, and, when combined with last year’s solid draft, they got younger and more talented.
The Bucs didn’t light it up in Free Agency, but they did manage a few key pick-ups, including Anthony Becht, who gives them a strong, solid, run-blocking TE with good hands. The Bucs also picked up Juran Bolden and Chris Hovan to help out on defense.
Overall, the Bucs look like they have greatly improved the talent on the team without attempting to fix the team with short life FA’s. In the process the team got much younger, but it also got much more inexperienced. So how does this affect the team this season and in the future?
2005 And Beyond -
Now that training camp is here, the Bucs can embark on their voyage toward future playoff prominence. But first they most grow through the upcoming season and determine who will and won’t be a part of the team’s future.
If you had to rate teams by their talent level, last year’s Bucs, as placed on the field, probably rate a 5 on a 1 to 10 scale. Had the injuries not occurred, it would have been around a 7. This year’s team appears to be a 7, maybe 8, on that scale, but it’s too early to tell for sure. If half of the Bucs 2005 draft picks turn out to be as advertised, then this team will easily be a 7. But talent alone doesn’t win ball games.
On defense, the Bucs appear to be solid like last year, yet they have addressed their need to get bigger in the middle by picking up Hovan and drafting big Anthony Bryant. If both players prove good enough to make the team, it will instantly help the Bucs better stop the strong running teams. The Bucs' pass defense should be roughly the same, as they were ranked first last year, and should remain a top 3 or 4 pass defense. Overall, the defense should be about the same against the pass, but much better against the run. If Quarles struggles holding up against the runs, Barrett Ruud can come in and use his size, speed, and instincts to close things down. So I would have to say that the Bucs are looking to improve ten plus spots against the run. With a defense that is top ten across the board, the team will instantly be in every game they play save the one or two where the defense just doesn’t come to play.
On Special Teams, the Bucs will need to improve their kicking game, and also try to maintain the improvements they made in the rest of their game. With some key FA’s gone and new guys coming in, it may be hard to maintain the blocking and coverage teams they had last year, but they have the talent to do it, so time will tell. With the kicking game, there is no place to go but up. With Matt Bryant and Todd France battling it out, the Bucs should end up with a kicker that can improve our kicking game by at least 10 percentage points. That alone will win us two more games. If France has a season like he did in Europe, the Bucs could have the weapon they need to win most of their close games Dungy style; i.e. run the ball a lot, control the clock, kick field goals, and stop the other team from scoring with good defense. Never underestimate the value of a kicker that can get those clutch kicks. The Patriots didn’t when they franchised Viniteri.
That leaves us with the offense, where the Bucs will win or loose the key games during the season. Last year the offense failed to score TD’s way too often, then topped that off with missing the field goal. Throw in the occasional fumble or interception, and that spells doom for any team. This year the Bucs will need to get their offensive line in place. Then they will need to keep them together, and hopefully stay healthy. If they do that, the guys they have ready to take those spots are much better run blockers than the guys they are replacing. Ironically, the Bucs have a nice new shiny Cadillac to run behind them.
The Bucs plan to use the Rocket package (two halfback sets) extensively, much as Gruden had done with the Eagles and Raiders. With Williams and Pittman (or Garner, if healthy) this package causes a host of problems for defenders, forcing them into more base defenses and less blitzing. This will help the Bucs offense tremendously as it will relieve the constant rushing pressure they have faced the last two seasons, while allowing the Bucs to control the clock and drive into scoring range. It will also allow them to use their new Tight Ends to devastating effect, much like during the Super Bowl season. If the Bucs can get the running game going, to go along with their defense, the Bucs will be in every game, and might actually surprise some people.
The biggest obstacle that the Bucs will face this season is going to be inexperience of key players, especially along the offensive line. If the new players can play well, and minimize mistakes, then the Bucs could have a shot at actually turning things completely around this year. That’s not very likely, but the Bucs should show steady improvement and be a very dangerous team by year’s end. That will set the team up for what should be a very strong run in 2006 and beyond.
So what do I think is the likely conclusion for this year? I look at this team and it’s simply very difficult to peg it, especially before seeing these guys play in Pre-season. But I see a team that is likely to be somewhere between a 6-10 and a 10-6 team. A winning season is possible, but not highly likely. To be honest, I think 8-8 is the most likely record, and is what I plan to pick them at. But I envision this team playing in 10-12 games that are decided by three points or less. Last year they lost 8 games by a TD or less. This year the games should be closer, and when that happens a team can tilt either way on just one play, much like the Bucs 1998 season that followed a similar season in 1997, but one where they won fewer of the close games.
So that’s what I see this year: an 8-8 team with the potential to go up or down 2 games. Will they make the playoffs? I would only give them a 30% chance, but it’s not out of the question. What’s worse is they could bomb out because of the inexperience, but I think the defense will be too strong for that to happen. So have fun watching this team grow this season. They might surprise you in a good way. If they explode into a million pieces, however, don’t yell at me! So let’s get to September and yell “Go Bucs!”