State Of The Bucs, Post Preseason 2005
Introduction -
Preseason 2005 is now over, and we now have a chance to look back at the Bucs to see how they addressed key areas that caused problems last season. These keys must be addressed if the Bucs are to be successful come Sunday. So what are these keys?
First, offensive line play in the running game. Second, run defense. Third, field goal kicking. Fourth, lack of tight end threats. Fifth, lack of an elite runner to take some pressure of the line when blocking. Sixth, too many penalties. Eight, the losing battle of the turnover ratio. And eighth, a lack of a full receiving corps. A lot of keys for sure, but these were the weaknesses that ultimately cost the Bucs one way or another. I'll address all seven separately below. Now there could be more keys, if you really started breaking things out, but addressing these 8 key issues changes the dynamics of virtually every game they lost last year, and would have given them a chance to win 4 or 5 more games, with talent depth limiting just how good last year's team could have been.
So, with out further adieu, let's take a look at these items starting with the offensive line play in the running game.
I Can't Get No...Offensive Line Run Blocking -
Last year, and, for that matter, the last couple of seasons, the run blocking of the offensive line has not be very good. One of the biggest problems has been the failure of the offensive line to hold the line of scrimmage on run plays. You must hold the line first. If you can't do that, you end up with a large number of negative running plays as backs are getting tackled in the backfield. This happened constantly in any game the Bucs played where the opposing defensive line was physical. In those games where they weren't, the Bucs managed to just hold the line.
Which brings us to the next problem: advancing the blocks past the line of scrimmage. This is an area that the Bucs line simply failed game in and game out. How many runs can you recall actually seeing the offensive line push the defensive line back off the line of scrimmage? It was a rare sight indeed. Injuries didn't help, but the big key was a lack of physical play from Deese, Stinchcomb, and Coleman. All are either gone are relegated to second string.
The final issue was the inability to take the blocks to the second level. In other words, where the offensive lineman blocks out the defensive linemen and is able to release and take the block to the linebacker level. Ultimately, this is where you want to be on offense, where your offensive linemen are doing a good enough job to get to the point where they can start knocking linebackers around. This is where the big runs happen. Once you get a running back cleared to run against the secondary, then the odds of a huge run increase dramatically. Ask the Bucs defense about this, because it happened to them too frequently last year.
So, essentially, to have an effective running game you need to first hold the line of scrimmage which will prevent negative run plays, and give the back a chance to get some yardage, if even just a yard, on most run plays. The next step is to be able to consistently win the line of scrimmage and push defenders back. This get's you a consistent running game, regardless of the back, and allows you to dictate the offense to the defense. If you get good enough to be able to take your blocks to the second level 20% of the time or more, you can become an elite running team, because you will start ripping off big runs with regularity.
So where are the Bucs now, compared to last year? As I mentioned before, the Bucs couldn't hold the line against physical team, and could not win the line against lesser teams. If you have an elite back behind that, you can at least get positive yardage a good amount of the time, but you'll still suffer, and could get your back killed. Without the elite back, the Bucs could never really establish a running game against any teams other than the ones with weak run defenses. That's not a recipe for success in the NFL.
So far this preseason, we've seen the line play against different lines, and the results have been positive. The Bucs have been able to hold the line and occasionally win it against physical defensive fronts. That is a huge leap from last year, but it still is not elite level. They've also been able to win the line and get to the 2nd level on numerous occasions against the weaker run defenses they faced. The end result showed the Bucs running for well over 100 yards per game. They were held down under 100 yards in two games, but not down in the 50 yard range that they would have had last season. And this is with Williams getting few carries. Graham averaged over 4 yards per carry in preseason, even against first teamers, and that show a lot of promise.
What I expect to see this year is a lot of perimeter running, with occasional runs up the middle to keep the defense honest. So far the Bucs have shown the ability to run everywhere, but they have been more successful to the edges, with their best success coming around the left side where Davis and Becht are clearing guys out. This offensive line is, right now, an average run blocking team, which is a marked improvement over last year. They have the ability, as they continue to play together, and hopefully not get hurt, to become an above average run blocking team. So that's one area of needed improvement that looks to have been addressed and improved enough to help win a couple more games.
The Run Defense, As In Where Is It? -
On the flip side of running the ball, is the inability to stop the run. Last year, far too often, the Bucs found themselves with offensive linemen getting to the linebackers, allowing backs to rip off a lot more big runs than what is characteristic of this defense. While the Bucs will always be a little softer in the middle due to their style of defense, they were way too soft these past two years, with last season being downright bad compared to prior Buc teams.
With McFarland out for much of the season, the Bucs had to get a little smaller up front and it showed. Too much turnover at the tackle positions also kept the defensive line from really coming together and learning how to cover up for each other when required. What also hurt the Bucs run defense was the injury to Philips and the inability of the safeties to come up quickly and plow into the running back, ala John Lynch. With all of these issues occurring, the Bucs run defense simply could not hold the line on a consistent basis against all the physical, tough running teams they faced last season.
This offseason the Bucs went about trying to upgrade the middle of the line. They brought in Chris Hovan at DT, along with drafting the mammoth Anthony Bryant in the 6th round of the draft. The objective was to get a little bigger in the middle without loosing the needed trademark speed that the defense requires and thrives on. The Bucs, during the last two seasons when McFarland was out, had to rely on guys who were in the 270's and 280's size wise. With the UT spot also being a little light without McFarland in there, and once Sapp was gone, that left the Bucs too undersized in the middle to hold the line on a consistent basis. Hovan is a hair under 300lbs, and is very quick. That goes well with McFarland who is also 300lbs. and quick. Together, and with Bryant who can come in and really clog it up, the Bucs should be much more stout against the more physical offensive lines.
So far, we've seen the Bucs starting defensive line hold teams to around 3 yards per carry, though they did have problems with Miami and Williams. They kept Brown in check for the most part, but they still gave up too many yards against the Dolphins. But, against everyone else, the Bucs were extremely difficult to run on and looked more like the run defense we are used to seeing. As we go forward this season I would expect to see the Bucs back in the top 10 in run defense. Stopping the opposing teams from running the ball up the gut all day will go a long way to getting offenses off the field and help the Bucs control the clock more. So consider this area addressed and improved.
Field Goal Kicking: When Your Balls Miss The Goal -
Remember those heart wrenching moments during the last two season when we watched as a kick was blocked, or sailed off to the left or right, or just fell short? Remember all the games we lost because of this? Remember when we came back against the stinkin' Panthers in 2003, only to watch the extra point, to win it, get blocked? Well, we fixed the blocked kicks last season. What we failed to fix was the kicking position where Martin Grammatica went from Automatica to Gramissica. It wasn't a pretty sight to see our former 3rd round pick missing kicks he used to make without blinking. It cost us several games in 2003, then cost us some more last year before we booted him, and replaced him with Taylor, who we lacked confidence in for kicks over 40 yards.
Needless to say, if you can't reliably kick field goals, and you have no accuracy in the 40-50 range, then you're going to fail to score points on a lot of drives, and it's going to catch up with you. Key misses cost us points that would have gotten us closer to winning, or would have tied or put us ahead. The kicking game alone probably cost us at least 3 wins last year, possibly more, if the missed points would have led to a stronger defensive outing and more offense. It's just too hard to put a finger on how much damage it causes when the defense holds the opposing offense, then your offense goes down, gets to within scoring range, and fails to score any points. It's demoralizing to the defense, and it costs you valuable opportunities to either close the scoring gap or take the lead.
This year, the Bucs released Taylor and brought in former Giants Kicker Matt Bryant, and then gave him stiff competition from NFL Europe's Todd France. The two have battled it out all off-season and through the preseason. Ultimately, with both showing similar accuracy and consistency, it came down to two things: experience and kickoff placement. Bryant was more consistent in having deep kickoffs, and is an experienced NFL kicker. Bryant showed the ability to put the ball further down field than Martin did, which will help our special teams and defense. But, primarily, the accuracy of his kicking game all off-season and during the preseason has been in the high 80's, percentage wise. That will lead to the team making a lot more field goals, and putting up those crucial points that we failed to do last season. So it appears, assuming he doesn't melt under regular season pressure, that this area has also been addressed and improved.
Got Tight Ends? We Didn't -
Last year's tight end situation was abysmal. In 2002, we had Dilger and Dudley who were both younger and healthier than the last two seasons. Both had the ability to get stretch the middle of the defense, while also being at least adequate in run blocking. With the team having to go last season without Dudley, and with Dilger clearly showing his age, the Bucs options became much more limited as guys like Heller failed to show up consistently or be the consistent deep middle threat we had when Dudley was healthy. Once the Bucs found themselves in this situation, it became harder to run Gruden's offense, especially with the receiving corps basically decimated.
Gruden's offense relies heavily on the ability of the tight ends to either run block or get out into patterns. Gruden loves to throw a lot of two tight end sets, especially when running the rocket package. Without the ability of the tight ends to consistently threaten the deep middle of the field, defenses could simply hold the linebackers up close for run support and back off to cover the tight ends, leaving the entire secondary to blanket cover the receivers. When your tight end can consistently get by an opposing defenses linebackers, and get into the deep middle of the field, the secondary must now choose and pick who they will cover, and it pulls the linebackers further off the line than they want. This leaves the short zones for the running backs to take short dump off passes if everything else is covered. It also allows a lot of running room for a back when it's a delayed run, such as a draw.
Without this threat, defenses just break in half, brining part back to cover down the receivers, and the rest come up to stop the run. When you get this kind of field imbalance, and you can't take advantage of it, that's trouble for you offense as it won't be able to run, and it will face a lot of pressure on pass plays. So, this offseason the Bucs went out and really addressed this high need area. They brought in Anthony Becht from the Jets, and drafted Alex Smith, a tight end from Stanford. Becht is a killer run blocker, and a guy with enough athleticism to stretch the middle of the field a little bit, keeping defenses honest. He seems very capable of cutting to the outside as receivers go deep, leaving the middle out patterns open, which will get you a lot of first downs.
Alex Smith, however, is a different animal. He has the ability to be a very strong run blocker, but is still improving on his technique. What makes him really dangerous, is his ability to easily stretch the deep the middle forcing defenses to either commit a DB to him, of have their linebacker sucking wind 2 yards behind him. Being able to stretch the linebackers like this puts a lot of pressure on the defense. Not only do they have to worry about receivers possibly getting deep, but they have to worry about the tight ends too. Smith will, in time, become a huge weapon for the Bucs, and he'll make it easier to run the ball, just by the fact that the defense must account for him. With Becht's blocking skills, and decent receiving skills, and Smith's abilities, the Bucs now have a more potent version of the 2002 tight end combination they had before. These guys are younger, and need more time to develop fully, but they will cause a lot of headaches in the future.
During the preseason we've seen glimpses of what these guys can do. On one play, Smith got open deep in the middle of the field, some 20 yards with room to run, but he dropped a perfectly thrown pass by Simms. Smith will catch those passes more often than not, you can be assured of that. We have also seen Becht throwing some really nice blocks on the edges, allowing our backs to pick up extra yardage. We've also seen him blow some communications with Davis, allowing Taylor to get by twice during the Miami game, sacking Griese. Both are going to get better, and will be very big threats by the end of the year. So this area has been addressed as well, and has improved some, but needs time to really show the marked improvement that the Bucs need. Give it a few games and we should see these guys making a huge impact.
Elite Runners And The Bucs Just Don't Mix -
For how many years have the Bucs tried to get an elite runner in here? Remember Bo Jackson? The Bucs best tailback ever was probably Wilder, and he continues to sit about 1000 yards ahead of Alstott on the team's all-time rushing list. To be honest, the closest the Bucs have ever gotten to having an elite running back would be Alstott and Dunn. If you could combine the two, and have a back with both the power and the speed to go with the vision that both have, you would have the ultimate running back. Alas, since Dunn's departure, the Bucs have relied on Pittman, who is, at best, an average runner. Pittman is a top notch pass catcher and blocker, but you need to be able to run the ball with authority and vision, and Pittman just hasn't shown that.
Last year, the Bucs brought in Garner, an elite runner who had all the traits of Pittman, plus the ability to run the ball at an elite level. Unfortunately, he appeared to be slowed a little from the knee injury that hampered him in 2003, then blew out his other knee playing the Raiders in the third game of the season. Not only did that take away the Bucs elite runner (regardless of whether he was still elite or not), but it also took away the ability to run the rocket package regularly as Gruden had planned. The rocket package is where two top notch tailbacks, with speed, line up behind the line. Either, or both, can swing out to a receiver position, or stay in to block, or become the fullback on the play. It causes a lot of confusion when you have two runners capable of running the ball back there, as defenses must break down and play a more vanilla run defense, or risk getting burnt badly by keying on the wrong guy. It also gives the offense a ton of options on passing plays.
Gruden has frequently used this package, in his prior coaching stops, to cause defenses headaches, and it's been tough to defend. Not being able to use that package last year hurt the offense enormously. What also hurt was the fact that an already bad offensive line wasn't receiving the kind of help an elite running back can provide. If you remember the results for the different levels of successful run blocking you can look at an elite back as a guy who can get the results of the next higher level of blocking. In other words, if your line is loosing the line of scrimmage or holding it against most defenses, an elite back can still regularly get you positive yardage, though negative plays will still happen on occasion. If the line holds the line regularly, an elite back will get you positive yardage pretty much every play, and will, on occasion, find a way to bust the big play. If the line can get win the line of scrimmage, an elite back will consistently get big runs, and rip off big plays with frequency. If you have an offensive line that consistently gets to the second level, an elite back will tear your opponent to shreds Jim Brown style.
So even if you have a poor run blocking offensive line, you will still tend to get positive yardage which is a big difference from what the Bucs had last year. More importantly, if you can improve your run blocking, your elite back becomes a threat to take it to the house anytime he touches the ball. This is when you start to "scare" defenses (though they aren't really scared, per se, just very alert of where the runner is and tentative in attacking him). Once you get the defense being tentative and cautious towards your running game, or all out attacking it, that opens up your receiving game big time, as you can start dictating match-ups, and you start to see a lot more one-on-one's in the secondary. At this point, being able to consistently threaten to run the ball will simply open up everything and make defenses either react to you, or take gambles by guessing what you will do next. That leaves it open to a lot of big plays.
Never underestimate just how valuable an elite runner can be to your team. The Jags are far more potent with Taylor running behind that solid line than with any of their other backs. With the drafting of Williams, the Bucs appear to have finally gotten that elite back they have always needed. He has the speed and vision to run anywhere, as well as having a nice blend of power to go with that speed. He's a guy that consistently gets positive yardage, and that can mean the difference between 3rd and 10, and 3rd and 6, which is statistically a huge difference in make percentage. Then, top it off with Grahams maturation, the Bucs now have three tailbacks that can all run the ball and catch it, with two being excellent blockers and Graham coming along. While Williams is the only elite runner of the group, if Graham can continue to improve, he may end up being a running improvement over Pittman, and that could help the Bucs in the future. More importantly, if one runner goes down, they now have a legitimate 3rd guy that's just good enough to allow them to continue to run from the rocket package.
During the preseason we saw a lot of Graham who ran very well against everyone. We saw glimpses of Williams, and he was clear that he could get to any hole very quickly, and has the ability to suddenly burst through that hole after patiently waiting for it to open, something Pittman is getting better at. Williams, assuming he stays healthy, will be an elite back. You can just tell by the way he runs the ball. It will take some time for him to fully adjust to the speed of the NFL game, but once he does...look out. Consider this area addressed and improved over last year as well.
Tweet! Another Penalty, Or When Flags Go Wild -
Well, it doesn't take a long dissertation, nor a rocket scientist, for the effect of penalties to be obvious and well known. The last couple of years the Bucs have simply lacked discipline and consistently been flagged for killer penalties. Whether or not that continues this year is hard to tell. Last season saw a lot of holding calls, false starts, and illegal motions. The defense also managed to get a few stupid penalties of their own, including some personal fouls.
One improvement last year was with Walker, who managed to refrain from constantly getting his hands up into the face of opposing defensive linemen. Corey Ivy is now gone, so are some of his personal fouls on special teams. Overall, the Bucs have focused on reducing penalties during the last two seasons and it seemed, after the Titans game, that it worked. However, the Bucs were heavily penalized in the following three games. The one encouraging part, however, was that most of the penalties were on second or third team guys, or guys no longer on the team (Ronyell Whitaker for example).
So where are they going into this season? I can't really say for sure. I think they are improved, at least with the starters, but it's too early to tell. We'll have to wait a few games to get a good gauge on where they are in this area. Until then, consider this area addressed, but unknown as to improvement.
As Anyone Seen My Balls? -
How many games did we let slip by due to turnovers? I can think of four right off the bat: Seattle, Rams, Saints, Chargers. In the Seattle game, the Bucs are driving to take the lead (if my memory recalls correctly), only to have Simms fumble the ball near the Seahawks goal line. During the Rams game, while we are driving toward what looks like a score to put us ahead, Pittman fumbles the ball, and the Rams take it the other way for a TD and the lead. Then we are driving to tie the game, and Tim Brown fumbles the ball on the Rams 12 yard line, eliminating the chance to tie the game an go to OT to decide it. In one of the Saints games, the Bucs are trying to run the clock down while get into scoring position to try and ice the game, only to have Pittman fumble the ball again, allowing the Saints to put up the winning points on the following drive (again if I recall properly). Alstott had also killed a drive earlier in the game that was headed for points when a Saints defender hit the ball with his helmet and knocked it out. Then, during the Chargers game, with the score going back and forth, Griese throws a pick that goes the other way for a TD. That pretty much ended the game right there.
Needless to say, the Bucs for the first time in a while, were heavily negative in the turnover ratio. Not only did they give up quite a few turnovers, but the defense also failed to get many turnovers. One of the biggest keys to the 2002 season was the turnover ratio. During that year, the Bucs offense rarely turned the ball over, and frequently forced turnovers, including quite a few scores, something that was most dramatically shown during the Super Bowl itself. Last season the defense simply was off when it came to getting the ball from the opponent. Rare was the score of a turnover. And when they did get the ball and let the offense come onto the field, it either gave the ball back, or failed to produce points on most occasions (one area that field goal kicking is crucial in).
So this offseason the Bucs worked very hard at getting and eliminating turnovers. Special drills are run constantly to encourage stripping the ball or picking it off on pass plays. On the flip side, backs, tight ends and receivers have been constantly put through drills where they are hit and strips are attempted. A lot of focus has been put on this part of their game and the goal, first and foremost, is to end up on the positive side of the turnover ratio.
During the preseason, we saw the Bucs cough up the ball 7 or 8 times with a number of those being non-starters of guys no longer here. On defense we saw the Bucs get 12 turnovers, 6 picks and 6 fumbles. Quite frankly, the secondary had their hands on the ball several more times and could have easily had another 4 or 5 picks. So, to this point, we have seen exactly what they wanted, fewer turnovers, especially from their starters, and more turnovers generated. This is a huge key for the Bucs success this year. If the Bucs finish the season +10 or more in the turnover ratio, they WILL have a winning record, I guarantee it. Consider this area addressed and looking to be very much improved.
Anyone Receiving This? -
The last key comes down to what ended up being the lack of a strong receiving corps. With McCardell holding out, and getting shipped out, and Jurevicious and Galloway being injured for many games, the Bucs simply lacked any proven threats. Out of this mess came the rookie Michael Clayton, who proved himself worth of being a high first round pick. But having one great receiver just isn't enough in this day and age. You need at least two. Once Galloway came back last year, he started to get better and better until he started to become a force. By this time, however, it was too late for him to make a difference.
With Shepherd going down before the season, one of the Bucs promising new comers was unavailable. Basically, this left the Bucs with no real depth at the receiver position, and a rookie getting much of the passing game coming his way. This was not a healthy position for the offense to be in, and the result was an offense that could not score regularly, could not maintain drives, and was prone to being pressured into poor passes.
This offseason the Bucs got everyone healthy, and worked to keep them that way through the preseason. Galloway has been handled gingerly so as not to allow him to aggravate anything before the season began, thus allowing the chance to be fully healthy going in, unlike last year. The Bucs also did themselves a favor in picking up a legitimate number 2 receiver to be their number 3, that being Ike Hilliard. With the 3 receivers here and healthy, the Bucs can afford one to go down. The Bucs then addressed future depth by drafting 3 receivers: Brackins, Warren, and Russell. Warren and Russell will start the season on the 53 man roster and will have the chance to eventually move their way up to maybe the number 3 spot in up coming seasons. For now they provide depth. Brackins is currently on the Practice Squad and will be developed such that the Bucs can, if they don't loose him, use the tremendous talents he has to be an effective number 2 receiver. His JUCO roots, however, make him a 2 year project so he'll be a long term solution.
During the preseason we saw many a play made by all of the receivers currently on this roster. With a healthy Galloway and Hilliard there to come on during 3 wide, and provide depth, the Bucs will have a much more potent and respected set of receivers than last season. Galloway has, during training camp, shown a penchant for getting deep often, and making plays. This could be a big year from him. If Clayton can avoid any sophomore issues, he'll be bringing it as well. With depth available from the youngsters, the Bucs should be in better shape than last year, should they have multiple injuries. So, in essence, the Bucs have addressed and improved this area of concern, though the improvement may only be moderate this year. The following seasons, however, will be greatly improved, especially with more drafts to address this position.
Conclusion, AKA Are We Going To Win? -
Having watched how these 8 areas were affected by this years decisions, so far I've seen substantive improvement in 6 of the areas, solid improvement in one other, leaving the penalty issue left to be determined. One thing is for certain, from what I have seen this team will be very much improved over last year's team. Will it be enough to show up in the Win/Loss column? It's hard to be certain, but I still believe that 8-8 is the benchmark.
Lack of experience is the key issue that the Bucs will have to deal with this season. Many of the new starters that are helping improve these areas are rookies or second year players. So there is certainly some chances for regression or mistakes to cost games that they should win. The fact that no one is really giving this team much of a chance is even better as this team has always defied under those circumstances. I've seen a lot of improvements in this preseason that tells me that they have the talent, right now, to get into the playoffs and even do some damage, but the experience factor is likely to cost them 2-4 games this season. Still, you can feel to hope, as I will, that they can return to the promised land, because I like their chances of competing in every single game. When you can get to that point, in a league with this much parity, you always have a chance.
In the end, I'll stick with my current official projection of
9-7 because I'm an optimist who sees the possibilities of this team, as opposed
to those who dwell on the areas that they might be deficient. Enjoy this season,
because you are likely going to see some new stars born and a rebirth of this
team.