State Of The Bucs, Post Preseason 2005
Introduction -
The schedule is now half over, and the Bucs have managed to come out of it at 5-3, higher than most people, including myself, expected. The Bucs came out of the gate pretty hot, winning their first 4 games. Since then, they have gone 1-3, having lost the last two games in ugly fashion. So how does this team look going forward, and what has this team accomplished so far?
We'll start by looking back of the first half of the season and review why the Bucs have a winning record in the first half. Then we'll look at where the team is going the rest of this season and how it impacts next year's effort.
The First Half -
The Bucs opened the season in startling fashion by going up to Minnesota and beating a team that was considered a playoff contender at the time. The Bucs, through the heavy use of a rushing attack, led by rookie Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, was able to put together a solid offense. We saw a defense that was penetrating and suffocating, forcing the Vikings to try to beat the Bucs through the air. We also saw Griese throw a pick for a TD to give the Vikings the early lead. Then the Cadillac took over and started running around and through the Vikings' defense. The end result: the Bucs won with Caddy ripping off a 71 yard TD run to finish the Vikings off despite playing on the road in that loud dome where they hadn't one in many years.
The Bucs would continue their use of the running game to beat the Bills and Packers during the next two games. Unfortunately, Caddy injured his foot (arch strain) during the Bills game, and it would begin to really affect him by the time the team faced the Lions. The Bucs used some big pass plays to Pittman and Galloway to beat the Lions, along with a favorable instant replay review of what was ruled a Lions' TD initially. By this time, the Bucs looked to be a force in the league with a running game that was tough too stop. Then the Jets happened, where a couple of key Griese turnovers lost the game for the Bucs, removing them from the list of unbeatens.
The following week, right before the Bye, the Bucs, with Williams resting his foot, ran all over the Dolphins in a blow out victory that would end the season for Griese, and start it for Simms. Then the Bucs had the Bye week and came out it by going to San Francisco, where they lost to an inferior team by playing very poorly all around. That was followed by the debacle against a very strong Panthers team, where, for the first time, the Bucs were blown out.
So we sit at 5-3 mostly due to the "fixing" of several key areas of concern from the past two seasons. The first area fixed was the running game, both offensively and defensively. So far, the Bucs have managed to remain at the top of the league in run defense (currently ranked 2nd, a yard behind the Panthers), having only allowed one running play over 17 yards, and limiting some very strong running backs in the process. The Bucs run defense has held strong all season, save the 49ers game, and that has helped eliminate a key weakness in the Bucs' defense as a whole.
On offense, the rushing attack was addressed in two ways: blocking and running back play. The first was a huge key to winning early in the season. That was the ability for the new offensive line to run block, evident throughout most of the first half of the season. As teams have seen what they do on film, however, the running game has lost potency during the past two weeks, probably mostly due to the inexperience of a few of the offensive linemen currently starting, which makes it harder for them to deal with stunts, and other defensive tricks. The offensive line will have it's up's and down's when you consider how much youth it has, but they need to find consistency soon to get things back on track.
The running back side of the equation was answered by drafting Cadillac Williams in the 5th spot of the draft. During his first 3 games, he exploded through defenses, and has already found himself in the Hall of Fame. His running helped the Bucs develop confidence in their running game, and helped lead them to a 4-0 start. During the Lions game, however, he had problems with the foot injury causing him to overcompensate and strain his hamstring. Pittman came in and was mildly effective against the Lions on the ground, but did the real damage with a 40+ yard wheel route for a TD against a linebacker. With Caddy out, Pittman was able to do some serious damage against the Dolphins, but was not very effective against the Jets the week before. So for two straight games (Lions and Jets) the Bucs struggled with a combination of so-so line play and being without Caddy, only to bounce back against the Dolphins in a huge win. Then came the 49ers and Panthers games where the Bucs offensive line has been highly ineffective running or passing. They did improve somewhat in the first half against the Panthers, but deteriorated quickly in the second half when they got behind and had to throw most of the time.
Another key area of offseason concern was field goal kicking. To fix this problem the Bucs came into camp with 2 kickers battling it out, and finally settled on the more veteran of the two, Matt Bryant. So far, Bryant has only missed two kicks, both from 49 yards or longer. The rest have been good, including several beyond 40. The higher level of accuracy has definitely helped the Bucs pull out some games by getting points when their drives stalled, something they had problems doing last year. This area seems to be fixed for the time being.
Penalites and the return teams were other areas of concern that they hoped they had addressed, but, by the results so far, appear to still be problems. So far the Bucs are on a pace for their worst season ever, penalty wise. Undisciplined play has become a problem that seems to only occur at times, but tend to be critical. The current pace will shatter the Bucs previous high for penalties. Of course, penalties are up league wide, so it may not just be them. During Preseason the punt returns stunk, with a lot of fumbling occurring. As a reslt, Gruden picked up Mark Jones off of waivers, bringing back his draft pick back of 2004 to help fix the problem. To this point Jones has proven to be very solid in punt returns averaging over double digits for some games, and averaging roughly 9 yard per return to date. The kick returns, however, have continued to hurt the team as the kick teams can't seem to get good blocks or they get called for a penalty to negate the big ones. Until now field position hasn't been great for the Bucs, with the league's second worst starting position. These starts have made it difficult on the offense, which as to frequently go close to 80 yards on virtually every drive. This area needs to be addressed or the Bucs will continue to struggle in the scoring area.
With two straight losses, one has to wonder what's happened with this team? Well, this team is clearly talented, but inexperience, and some key injuries, continue to hold the team back. With Caddy hurting his foot, the Bucs kind of got away from running at times, and need him healthy and running like before to really get things turned around. Also, Clayton has been having issues dropping passes and dealing with a shoulder injury. Now he's bruised his knee and will have to likely sit out a game or two to heal up. But what has killed the team more than anything else has been the offensive line play. Early in the season the line was winning at least half of it's blocks, and at least holding on most of the rest. Negative yardage runs were very uncommon early in the season. Then as teams game planned what they saw, the experience factor kicked in, and now the line has problems hitting it's blocks quick enough, allowing defenses to beat them for more negative yardage runs these past two games, than they had in the prior 6 combined.
Right now the offensive line is just loosing way too many battles. That then translates into the passing game where quick defenders are taking that split second of indecision and doubt and getting by them for quick sacks. And even though Galloway has been able to kill teams through the air, and appears to be on a Pro-Bowl pace, the fact that the line can not keep defenders off the young and inexperienced QB, Simms, is not helping. Having lost Griese, the Bucs no longer have the experience to change a bad play, or take full advantage of defensive mistakes. On the plus side, however, Simms gives the Bucs the ability to accurately deliver the ball anywhere, and his passes to the backs have been superior to those of Griese, who frequently made the backs turn for the ball. Getting the ball in front of Alstott has allowed him to make some big gains on passes to the flats. His arm strength also allows him to hit Galloway, perfectly, in the endzone with 60+ yards of air under the ball. More plays like that could see defenses back off, but the offensive line is still the starting point for the offense.
Despite these issues on offense, the defense, though it is number 1 overall (No. 2 pass, No. 2 run), has allowed some TD's that should not have happened, along with some occasional big plays. Missed tackles have also crept up the last couple of games, along with no turnovers being generated. With the defense also having problems generating a pass rush, teams have been able to hit the occasional big pass, or convert a long 3rd down. That has also attributed to the losses. The defense seems to have given up some of it's pass rushing success for a more stout run defense, so you take the good with the bad. No defense can defend everything all the time, and our's is no exception to the rule.
The Second Half -
With the toughest part of the schedule coming up, the Bucs must return to what made them successful early in the season. The Bucs must, first and foremost, start run blocking with authority and decisiveness again. As the line learns to recognize the various blitzes and angles that defenders will take, you should start to see the offensive line begin to get better and start exploding into their run blocks a little quicker. As that begins to happen, the running game will start to return, despite the 8 man fronts. The learning experience will also translate into the pass protection, and give Simms enough time to burn teams for the coverages they use when they are trying to stuff the run.
It starts and stops in the trenches. If the offensive line can start run blocking well again, the pass protection will be better, and the Bucs will be able to start running and passing the ball in a more balanced, or run oriented, fashion, instead of backing up and passing all of the time. This line has enough talent to be an average to slightly above average line. It will likely never be great, but with the weapons the Bucs have, they just need to be average to give the offense a good chance to win.
The Bucs runners will continue to have their success tied to that of the offensive line. As the line goes, so will the running game. Williams will continue to get back to full strength and make it a little easier for the line, but they still need to open a hole for him to get into. In the passing game, the player that can improve the most is Clayton. If he can get back to being the player we saw last season, he'll make a big impact in the passing game and make the overall offense that much more dangerous. He clearly misses the off-season training that he was robbed of when he had knee surgery. He's had more drops in these 8 games than all of 2004 combined. His lack of big plays in the receiving game is limiting the ability of the passing attack to take some of the heat off the running game and opening things up some. I see Clayton returning to form before the season ends, and that will bring us a nice boost.
Defensively, the Bucs must practice fundamentals again, and get back to assignment football and solid tackling. The occasional missed assignment and the alarming number of missed tackles during the last two games, gives one pause, but I suspect Monte will get these guys practicing the fundamentals again to reinforce the lessons that they appeared to take early on in the season. They also need to start forcing turnovers again. It's one thing if your offense gives up 2 or 3 turnovers and you get 2 or 3 turnovers. It's completely different when your offense gives them up when your defense comes out empty. That's not helping your chances to win. The offense needs to protect the ball better, but a young QB is going to turn it over, and it's the defense's job to take the ball back. They also need to stop playing soft coverage and only sending 4 on pass rushes. Time to let the dogs loose and get after the QB. With some good teams coming up, the Bucs must be able to not only shut the run down, but keep teams, like the Panthers, from converting 3rd and long through the air.
The Bucs need to improve their kick return blocking. Maybe a new scheme or something to shake things up. It's not working very well right now, and it would help the Bucs a lot to start more drives beyond their 30 yard line. I expect the punting and field goal kicking to continue to be strong, and that should help the Bucs win some games.
Looking forward the Bucs have a home game against the Redskins which I consdier winnable when you look at the problems the Skins have had on the road. They will need to establish the run and continue to see improvement from Chris Simms. It starts with running the ball and protecting the passer. If they can do that, Simms should be able to continue to improve upon his first half performance against the Panthers, and burn the Redskins and other teams down the line. The Bucs have a road game at Atlanta, a team they match up very well against, then come back home to face the Bears before a brutal 3 game road stretch against the very beatable Saints, followed by very tough games against the Panthers and Patriots, with that Gillette Stadium game occurring in the middle of December (can you say "snow"?). Then the Bucs finish at home against the Falcons and Saints, games they should win. The one thing to really watch out for is to see if, during one of these next 3-4 games, Simms suddenly has the light turn on. This is what will typically happen to good QB's when they finally just "get it" and learn how to approach the game in a winning fashion. If he can turn that light bulb on while we are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, then you can bank it that we'll be in. If he can get it, he'll be able to do some serious damage to defenses that stack the line to stop the run. If that happens, Williams will be running all over teams, and Simms will be hitting some deep passes to make teams pay every time they try to come up. Whether or not Simms can get to this level is the big question mark. I think, and seriously hope, that he can.
If the defense continues to play strong against the run and can find a way to generate a pass rush without giving up too much in the pass defense, then they should be able to contain the offenses they will face the remainder of the year, with maybe the exception of the Panthers, who may be the class of the NFC this year. The key will be on offense where they must run the ball often and let Simms develop into a QB that can win games from time to time. If they can do that, they should be able to have a solid second half. If they can go 0.500 the rest of the way, they would finish 9-7 and match my prediction. They may be able to do that by beating the Falcons once, the Saints twice, and win one of their two non-divisional home games against the Skins and Bears. If they do that and win BOTH non-divisionals, then they would go 10-6 and surely make the playoffs. But let's not forget, though we want to make the playoffs and have a shot at going the distance, the fact is that this is still a rebuilding year. Which leads me into the next section.
The Future -
This year has been, from the start, about playing the youngsters and getting this team in position to start making runs beginning in 2006. Because they got off to such a fast start, a lot of people assumed that they were already there. At one point it appeared that way, and was hard to argue. However, during the last two weeks reality has set in, and people have begun to realize that this team still has areas where it must improve a lot to make a run at the Lombardi.
This team may, just may, have the talent now to win playoff games, but the inexperience of the team, especially at QB, will continue to hamper their efforts this season. If the light goes on for Simms when they are still in the hunt, then anything is possible (just ask Tom Brady). Most likely, however, we will see this happen when it is either too late, or early next season. In any case, as the offensive line gets experience and improves, and the team continues to draft very good players, the team will get younger and better and they will make a good run next season. So if the team just can't get it done this year, let's hope we settle the QB position and see improvement all around, giving us optimism for next season. I still hope, and believe, that this team can be a wildcard, making it into the playoffs. Whether or not they can do anything from that point on, is a different matter. But if Simms develops into the QB many thought he could, then the Bucs could be set with their own threesome of Simms, Clayton, and Williams, and that would be a very good thing.
So sit back, relax, and enjoy the rest of this season. No matter what happens, we are likely to see the future of this franchise blossom before our eyes, and that alone should give you goose bumps thinking of what a seasoned offense with Simms, Clayton, and Williams can do in the future. If Simms falls on his face, expect this team to do everything it can to bring in a big time QB, either FA or draft pick, to cure that spot. I think he will succeed and that should be fun to watch, and fun to cheer for.